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Forecasting Bitcoin price using quantitative models, Part 4



That is Part 4 of a multipart collection that goals to reply the next query: What’s the “fundamental value” of Bitcoin? Part One is in regards to the worth of shortage, Part Two — the market strikes in bubbles, Part Three — the speed of adoption, and Part 4 — the hash fee and the estimated price of Bitcoin.

Hash fee and the estimated price of Bitcoin

In information mining, the time period “hash rate” is a safety metric. The larger the hashing energy, the larger its security and resistance to exterior assaults. It’s one factor for a hacker to assault your property pc, but it surely’s one other when a hacker tries to assault tens of hundreds of computer systems world wide on the identical time.

The hash fee progress is because of the ever-increasing computing energy of mining servers, which additionally means growing prices to mine Bitcoin (BTC). A easy rule tells us {that a} given exercise will need to have financial comfort to ensure that it to be sustainable over time. Those that extract oil from the bottom should promote it at a value larger than the price of extraction, those that produce electrical energy should promote it at a value larger than the price of manufacturing, and so forth.

The identical rule applies to Bitcoin mining, whereby the price of electrical energy, the amortization of more and more highly effective servers, and so forth., have to be decrease than the revenues generated by receiving Bitcoin for the exercise carried out.

Associated: Is Bitcoin a waste of power? Professionals and cons of Bitcoin mining

Due to this fact, the rising issue of mining Bitcoin have to be matched by financial comfort.

Within the first months of 2010, Bitcoin paid miners about $10,000 per thirty days. Right this moment, because of the expansion within the price of Bitcoin, the community of miners on the earth are distributed a wealth of over $500 million per thirty days — and this worth is destined to develop.

The determine is gigantic, even when partially commensurate with the consumption of electrical energy, but it surely permits us to know the era of wealth that this “social experiment” is ready to create. As we will see from the graph, the expansion of the hash fee is increased than the expansion of month-to-month remuneration. Due to this fact, so as to estimate the right price of Bitcoin based mostly on hash fee, it’s first mandatory to know the pattern of remuneration for every unit of hash over time.

As we will see, the greenback remuneration of the hash fee is in sharp decline. Because of this safety will increase virtually exponentially over time, however the price of safety drops significantly over that point.

For a greater understanding, whereas the remuneration for every block grows — regardless of or because of the halving that will increase shortage — the problem of undermining a brand new block will increase rather more shortly, no less than for now. Due to this fact, the price/hash fee ratio goes down as a result of the denominator goes up extra considerably than the numerator.

So, to estimate the (non-linear) pattern of decline in remuneration for hash fee, the perform that greatest represents this pattern is, as all the time, the ability legislation perform, as proven within the following determine.

As soon as we receive this perform by multiplying the 2 capabilities of hash fee progress and fee by a single hash fee, it’s attainable to acquire the perform that approximates the month-to-month remuneration in U.S. {dollars} over time.

This outcome doesn’t approximate the worth of the price of a single Bitcoin however of the month-to-month remuneration that’s rising over time, as may be seen on the earlier graph.


To estimate the Bitcoin price, corrected based on this hash fee metric, it’s essential to divide this worth by the typical variety of Bitcoin that’s mined in a given month. By doing so, we receive the everyday stepped pattern of the stock-to-flow mannequin described earlier.


We will conclude that even within the face of robust volatility and apparently incomprehensible price actions, the principal three components that transfer the price of Bitcoin — the shortage, the demand and the price of manufacturing — may be actually helpful to know the dynamics of Bitcoin price actions.

We will argue that there are long-term basic worth developments that may assist to think about Bitcoin a “strategic asset class” of funding.

This text was co-authored by Ruggero Bertelli and Daniele Bernardi.

This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call. The views, ideas and opinions expressed listed here are the authors’ alone and don’t essentially replicate or characterize the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Ruggero Bertelli is a professor of monetary intermediaries economics on the College of Siena. He teaches banking administration, credit score threat administration and monetary threat administration. Bertelli is a board member of Euregio Minibond, an Italian fund specializing in regional SME bonds, and a board member and vp of the Italian financial institution Prader Financial institution. He’s additionally an asset administration, threat administration and asset allocation adviser for institutional buyers. As a behavioral finance scholar, Bertelli is concerned in nationwide monetary teaching programs. In December 2020, he printed La Collina dei Ciliegi, a guide about behavioral finance and the disaster of monetary markets.

Daniele Bernardi is a serial entrepreneur always looking for innovation. He’s the founding father of Diaman, a bunch devoted to the event of worthwhile funding methods that not too long ago efficiently issued the PHI Token, a digital foreign money with the aim of merging conventional finance with crypto belongings. Bernardi’s work is oriented towards mathematical mannequin improvement, which simplifies buyers’ and household workplaces’ decision-making processes for threat discount. Bernardi can also be the chairman of buyers’ journal Italia SRL and Diaman Tech SRL, and is the CEO of asset administration agency Diaman Companions. As well as, he’s the supervisor of a crypto hedge fund. He’s the creator of The Genesis of Crypto Property, a guide about crypto belongings. He was acknowledged as an “inventor” by the European Patent Workplace for his European and Russian patents associated to the cell funds subject.

This text has been efficiently submitted to the World Finance Convention.

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