Bitcoin (BTC) is going through a “double bubble” and can see two price tops this yr, recent data suggests.
In a tweet on Aug. 18, Charles Edwards, CEO of funding agency Capriole, highlighted 2021 as having one key similarity to the 2013 double top bull cycle.
Bitcoin gears up for second peak
Bitcoin has divided opinion over whether or not its 2021 bull run is extra like 2013 or 2017 — the opposite two years which instantly adopted block subsidy halving occasions.
one metric, unrealized revenue and loss (UP&L), the reply could also be easy. In line with Edwards, solely 2013 has produced related outcomes for coin profitability.
“New evidence for a Bitcoin double bubble,” he summarized.
“In prior cycle tops, bounces were never able to hold unrealized profit and loss above 0.5. Only the 2013 double bubble and today have achieved this.”Bitcoin unrealized revenue and loss annotated chart. Supply: Charles Edwards/ Twitter
Such a perspective additional accommodates the favored stock-to-flow price mannequin, which calls for a mean BTC/USD studying of $100,000 or extra this yr. Its creator, PlanB, beforehand gave an end-of-year minimal of $135,000 as a “worst-case state of affairs” for Bitcoin.
The findings should not the one ones arriving on the “double bubble” conclusion.
Associated: No, Bitcoin isn’t getting into a 2018-like bear cycle, new data suggests, as BTC targets $45K
Devoted monitoring instrument the Bitcoin Bubble Index likewise depicts a two-phase price peak this yr.
For context, the Bubble Index hit its all-time excessive of 119 on April 14, the time that BTC/USD reached its present all-time excessive of $64,500. Presently, it measures 110, virtually the identical because the top, with Bitcoin sitting at $44,500.
Bitcoin Bubble Index vs. BTC/USD chart. Supply: Bybt
In Could, as Bitcoin was on its strategy to native lows of $29,000, data from on-chain analytics agency Glassnode likewise pointed to this yr mimicking 2013.